The Real Threat Isn't War – It's the Soil Beneath Our Feet

We spend a great deal of time worrying about terrorism, geopolitical tensions and the possibility of another world war.

Yet one of the greatest threats facing humanity is something most people never think about.

Soil.

Every loaf of bread, every pint of milk, every piece of fruit and every meal consumed anywhere on Earth depends on a relatively thin layer of fertile topsoil. Without healthy soil there is no agriculture, without agriculture there is no food, and without food there is no civilisation.

In 2015, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) highlighted growing concerns about the rate at which fertile soils are being degraded around the world. The warning became widely known as the claim that humanity may have only around 60 harvests remaining if current trends continue.

Whether the number proves to be exactly 60 years is almost beside the point.

The direction of travel is clear.

Around the world, fertile soils are being degraded faster than they are being restored.

The modern world has become remarkably disconnected from the land that feeds it. Food arrives on supermarket shelves every day, often at historically low prices, creating the illusion that food security is something we can take for granted.

The reality is very different.

The world's food system is built upon a natural resource that is being steadily depleted.

How Are We Losing Our Soils?

One of the greatest causes of soil degradation is erosion.

Through unsustainable farming practices, deforestation and poor land management, fertile topsoil is exposed to wind and water, which gradually removes the most productive layer of soil.

It is estimated that around 24 billion tonnes of fertile topsoil are lost globally every year.

At the same time, approximately 25% of the Earth's land surface is already considered degraded.

The loss of soil is not simply a farming issue.

It is a food security issue, an environmental issue and ultimately a human survival issue.

Repeated cultivation and intensive land use can also reduce levels of soil organic matter, one of the most important indicators of soil health.

Soil organic matter performs several critical functions. It stores carbon, supports soil biology, improves nutrient cycling, increases drought resilience and enhances the soil's ability to absorb and retain water.

When soil organic matter declines, soils become less productive, less resilient and more vulnerable to erosion.

Compaction presents another challenge.

When soils are repeatedly worked in unsuitable conditions or subjected to excessive machinery traffic, soil structure can become damaged. Water is unable to infiltrate effectively, oxygen levels decline and root development becomes restricted.

The result is poorer crop performance, increased surface water runoff and greater vulnerability to flooding.

The Hidden Cost of Modern Agriculture

Modern agriculture has delivered remarkable increases in productivity over the past century.

However, some of these gains have come at a cost.

The widespread use of synthetic fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides has undoubtedly increased yields, but overreliance on chemical inputs can disrupt natural soil processes and reduce biological diversity within the soil ecosystem.

Healthy soils are living systems containing billions of microorganisms, fungi, insects and other organisms that support plant growth.

When soil biology is damaged, farmers often become increasingly reliant on external inputs to maintain productivity.

Monocropping can further compound the problem.

Growing the same crop repeatedly on the same land places pressure on soil nutrients, increases pest and disease risks and can reduce long-term resilience unless carefully managed through crop rotations and soil improvement strategies.

The issue is not that modern farming is inherently bad.

The issue is that food production systems must evolve to protect the resource upon which they ultimately depend.

Climate Change and Soil Are Deeply Connected

Climate change and soil health are closely linked.

Healthy soils are one of the largest carbon stores on the planet.

In fact, soils contain more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined.

When soils are degraded, some of that carbon is released back into the atmosphere, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions.

At the same time, degraded soils are less capable of coping with the effects of climate change.

Droughts become more severe because soils retain less moisture.

Flooding becomes more frequent because water cannot infiltrate effectively.

Extreme weather events accelerate erosion and further degrade the land.

Healthy soils therefore represent one of the most powerful nature-based solutions available to address climate change while simultaneously improving food production and water management.

The Consequences of Doing Nothing

If soil degradation continues unchecked, the consequences extend far beyond agriculture.

Food production becomes increasingly difficult and expensive.

Crop yields decline.

Food prices rise.

Countries become more dependent upon imports and global supply chains.

Nations that rely heavily on agriculture for economic growth become increasingly vulnerable to economic instability.

Pressure intensifies on the remaining areas of productive land, creating a vicious cycle of further degradation.

Environmental impacts also increase.

Biodiversity declines as soil ecosystems deteriorate.

Deforestation accelerates as new land is brought into production to compensate for declining productivity elsewhere.

Water quality suffers and freshwater resources come under greater pressure.

The social consequences may be even more significant.

History repeatedly demonstrates that food shortages and rising food prices contribute to political instability, migration and social unrest.

Many of the geopolitical challenges we face today could be amplified significantly if global food production comes under increasing pressure.

Why This Matters to the UK

The UK is not immune from these challenges.

We continue to lose agricultural land to housing, infrastructure, biodiversity offsetting schemes, woodland creation projects and other competing land uses.

At the same time, we expect the remaining farmland to produce food, store carbon, support biodiversity, improve water quality and help mitigate climate change.

The pressure on our land resource continues to grow.

Yet surprisingly little attention is paid to soil itself.

Policy discussions often focus on carbon emissions, biodiversity targets and renewable energy while overlooking the resource that underpins them all.

Without healthy soils there is no food security.

Without food security there is no economic security.

Without economic security there is no long-term societal stability.

A Call to Action

The challenge facing humanity is not simply producing more food.

It is producing food while restoring the natural systems that make food production possible.

Healthy soils represent one of the few assets capable of delivering multiple benefits simultaneously. They produce food, store carbon, support biodiversity, improve water quality, reduce flooding and increase resilience to climate change.

The problem is not caused by farmers alone.

Government policy, supermarket buying practices, food processors, global markets and consumer demand for ever-cheaper food all influence how land is managed.

If we are serious about addressing climate change, protecting biodiversity and maintaining food security, soil must become a national priority rather than an afterthought.

The future of humanity will not be determined solely by what happens in parliaments, boardrooms or international summits.

It will also be determined by what happens beneath our feet.

Because civilisation depends upon a resource that most people rarely see, rarely think about and too often take for granted.

The soil.

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